Notre Dame, recruiting and the draft: Which positions do the Irish develop best?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — What does player development look like? And what happens when you apply a magnifying glass to it?

That’s a question our college football team at The Athletic tried to answer this spring by reviewing 11 years of recruiting data and comparing it against a corresponding decade-plus of NFL Draft results. Which program does the best at taking five-star talent and walking it down that predictable path to the pros? Or what about three-star prospects not viewed as NFL material? Who does the best job of developing that kind of talent for the next level?

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If you followed our two-part series, you know Notre Dame fared very well in developing four-star prospects into draft picks among the 65 other Power 5 programs. The Irish were solid in developing three-star prospects but ranked among the worst in taking their small sample of five-star talent and getting it to draft boards.

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Overall, Notre Dame ranked seventh with 23.1 percent of its three-, four- and five-star signees from 2009 through 2019 developing into draft picks. That trailed only Alabama (34.1 percent), Ohio State (32.5), LSU (29.7), Georgia (27.5), Florida (25.6) and Clemson (24.2) in draft percentage. It’s good company to keep for a program that made the national championship game once and the College Football Playoff twice during our evaluation window.

And yet, the national analysis of player development creates some local follow-up questions.

Which position does Notre Dame best develop for the draft? And how much do stars matter by position? Basically, is there a difference in the draft potential of a four-star receiver versus a three-star wideout when coming out of Notre Dame’s program? Turns out that while stars matter, they don’t matter the same at every position.

Yes, none of this data is perfect. Matthias Farley, Alex Bars and Romeo Okwara would count as “misses” in this project because none of the three was drafted. Yet all three have had successful NFL careers. On the flip side, KeiVarae Russell counts as a “hit” because he was a third-round pick, only to be cut in training camp with the Kansas City Chiefs, with a journeyman career to follow.

Notre Dame's 4-star development

Notre Dame's 3-star development

Notre Dame's 3- and 4-star development

Stars really mattered at defensive line

No position with a substantial sample size had a bigger four-star/three-star disparity in draft development than the defensive line. The Irish nailed their evaluations and development with their top defensive line targets, a group that included first-round pick Jerry Tillery and second-round pick Stephon Tuitt. While most of the four-star misses weren’t even fringe players, the hits among the four-star group offset it. It needed to. Just one of Notre Dame’s 23 three-star defensive linemen signed during the 2009 through 2019 evaluation period was drafted: fifth-round pick Ade Ogundeji.

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Under Brian Kelly and now under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has tried to sign an extra defensive lineman most cycles for the sake of development. There have been a few three-stars who helped Notre Dame but went undrafted: Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, Kurt Hinish, Romeo Okwara and Justin Ademilola. But when it comes to finding NFL talent in the three-star realm, it just doesn’t exist for Notre Dame. The Irish signed four defensive linemen last cycle, three four-star prospects (Devan Houstan, Brenan Vernon and Boubacar Traore) and one three-star prospect (Armel Mukam).

Bottom line: During the previous 11 recruiting cycles, a four-star defensive lineman was 10 times as likely to get drafted as a three-star prospect at the same position.

Tight end is off the charts

Notre Dame signed just two three-star tight ends during our evaluation period. One won the Mackey Award and went in the first round. The other was a three-and-out talent who went in the third round. Not a bad return on investment for Tyler Eifert and Tommy Tremble. Compare the 2-for-2 draft development for tight ends against the 2-for-33 draft development for three-star offensive and defensive linemen.

Not only is Notre Dame hitting for a high percentage in getting its tight ends into the draft — these stats don’t include five-star Michael Mayer — but the Irish also produced a strong number of early picks in Eifert, Kyle Rudolph (second), Cole Kmet (second) and Troy Niklas (second). Even Brock Wright, who went undrafted, has latched on with the Detroit Lions.

Notre Dame’s 54 percent draft percentage at tight end is roughly twice as good as its next best position at offensive line.

O-line’s 4-stars crowded out the 3s

At first glance, Notre Dame’s 10 percent draft rate on three-star offensive linemen might feel like a red flag of development. Nick Martin is the only three-star offensive lineman to get drafted from Notre Dame during our 11-year sample. The nine three-star linemen who didn’t get drafted logged a grand total of 18 starts at Notre Dame. But the story along the offensive line is simply that Notre Dame had better raw material to develop already on the roster.

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It’s not a bad thing Notre Dame didn’t turn its three-star offensive line talent into college starters or draft picks because Trevor Ruhland and Mark Harrell were stuck behind Ronnie Stanley or Quenton Nelson. No shame in that. Unlike defensive line, where Notre Dame signed more three-star prospects than four-star prospects during our 11-year study, the Irish signed 23 four-star offensive linemen compared to just these 10 three-stars. That meant the opportunities for playing time and development in-game were limited.

It’s all a reminder of what a unicorn Joe Alt is at left tackle. Not only is the former three-star the best offensive lineman on the roster, but he could also be Notre Dame’s first former three-star to go in the top 10 in the draft in the Rivals/247Sports rankings era.

LB was poor, safety was even worse

Linebacker has the excuse of Manti Te’o and Jaylon Smith exclusions from this data because they were five-star prospects. Safety can count Kyle Hamilton as a development story because he was a four-star prospect in the 247Sports Composite thanks to his inexplicable No. 75 overall ranking on Rivals. 247Sports rightly had Hamilton as a five-star prospect and No. 15 overall, not enough to bring up his average to five stars when averaging all the rankings.

Hamilton was the first safety drafted from Notre Dame since Zeke Motta, a nine-year gap (Harrison Smith signed two years before our sample size began). The Irish have also signed a dozen three-star safeties during the recruiting study’s timeline, without a single one being drafted. The last three-star safety drafted from Notre Dame was David Bruton. He committed to Tyrone Willingham and signed with Charlie Weis.

Notre Dame nearly signed four safeties last cycle: five-star Peyton Bowen plus four-stars Adon Shuler, Ben Minich and Brandyn Hillman. Bowen flipped to Oklahoma and Hillman was denied admission, ultimately signing with Michigan.

Linebacker has had its share of misses, but it can also point to developing Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah from a three-star prospect to a second-round pick. It’s hard to believe the position also went 1-for-11 in developing four-star linebackers into draft picks, with Drue Tranquill (barely a four-star prospect) the only success story.

(Photo of Tyler Eifert: George Gojkovich / Getty Images)

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